Crisis Timeline: February 10 – March 11, 2026 (30 Days Total)
Days Elapsed: 11 Days
Days Remaining: 19 Days
Status: ONGOING – No Resolution
DAY 11 UPDATE: Cuba’s unprecedented 30-day aviation fuel blackout enters its eleventh day today (February 20, 2026) with ZERO signs of resolution as the March 11 deadline looms 19 days away, leaving the Caribbean island virtually cut off from international air travel as ALL Canadian airlines (Air Canada, WestJet, Air Transat — representing 37% of Cuba’s total international capacity) remain indefinitely suspended, Southwest Airlines is tankering extra fuel from Fort Lauderdale (carrying enough for roundtrips without refueling in Havana), and European long-haul carriers (Air France, Turkish Airlines, Air Europa) are making mandatory refueling stops in the Dominican Republic or Cancun on return legs, marking the most severe disruption to Cuba’s $3 billion tourism industry since the 1990s Special Period following the Soviet Union’s collapse. The crisis — triggered by President Trump’s executive order threatening tariffs on any country supplying oil to Cuba (primarily targeting Mexico and Venezuela) — has forced airlines to choose between three bad options: (1) cancel flights entirely (Air Canada, WestJet, Air Transat, Cayman Airways), (2) tanker fuel from departure cities (Southwest, American Airlines), or (3) refuel elsewhere mid-route (Air Europa stopping in Santo Domingo, Turkish/Air France likely stopping in Cancun). Cuba’s 9 international airports — Havana (MUHA), Varadero (MUVR), Cienfuegos (MUCF), Santa Clara (MUSC), Camagüey (MUCM), Cayo Coco (MUCC), Holguín (MUHG), Santiago de Cuba (MUCU), and Manzanillo (MUMZ) — have had ZERO Jet A-1 fuel available since February 10, forcing the island nation to rely on foreign humanitarian aid (Mexico shipped 800+ tons of supplies February 9, China pledged “assistance,” Russia called the situation “truly critical”) while facing a broader energy emergency (10-hour daily blackouts, buses halted, banks on reduced hours, Havana International Book Fair cancelled, baseball season restructured). For Tier 1 travelers (US, UK, Canada, Australia), this means: (1) Canadian snowbirds STRANDED — Air Canada repatriated 3,000 travelers via empty southbound ferry flights February 10-12, but thousands more remain stuck in Cuban resorts, (2) US travelers WARNING — Southwest/American only serve short Florida-Cuba routes (Miami/Fort Lauderdale, 90-minute flights) where tankering is feasible, but any mechanical issue = stranded with no local refueling option, (3) European vacationers DELAYED — Air Europa Madrid-Havana now requires Santo Domingo refueling stop (+2 hours travel time), (4) Cuban diaspora CUT OFF — 2+ million Cuban-Americans in US (1.5M in Florida alone) unable to visit family except via risky tankered flights. As Cuba faces its most isolated period in 30+ years, President Miguel Díaz-Canel vows “surrender is not an option” while Trump doubles down, and international airlines re-evaluate whether Cuban routes remain viable long-term — with growing speculation that March 11 won’t mark the crisis’s end but rather a potential extension if geopolitical tensions persist.
⏰ CUBA FUEL CRISIS TIMELINE (DAY 11 of 30)
Crisis Start: February 10, 2026 at 05:00 UTC
Crisis End (Projected): March 11, 2026 at 05:00 UTC
Total Duration: 30 Days
Days Elapsed: 11 Days (as of February 20, 2026)
Days Remaining: 19 Days
Percentage Complete: 37% of crisis elapsed
Status: ONGOING — No resolution, no fuel deliveries, no diplomatic breakthrough
📊 AIRLINE STATUS UPDATE (AS OF FEB 20, 2026)
🔴 SUSPENDED INDEFINITELY (No Return Date)
Canadian Carriers (37% of Cuba International Capacity):
1. Air Canada:
- Suspended: February 10, 2026 (Day 1 of crisis)
- Routes Affected: Toronto-Havana, Montreal-Havana, Toronto-Varadero
- Repatriation: Operated empty southbound ferry flights Feb 10-12 to bring home ~3,000 stranded travelers
- Statement: “Aviation fuel will not be commercially available at the island’s airports”
- Refund Policy: Full refunds for all bookings Feb 10 – end of March
- When Will They Return? Unknown — airline waiting for “sustained fuel availability”
2. WestJet:
- Suspended: February 9, 2026 (1 day before crisis officially began)
- Routes Affected: Toronto-Havana, Toronto-Varadero, Calgary-Varadero
- Capacity: 27,700 two-way seats per week (21% of Cuba’s total international capacity!)
- Statement: Offering free changes for bookings Feb 9-26
- Refund Policy: Full refunds for cancelled flights
- When Will They Return? Unknown — airline “monitoring situation daily”
3. Air Transat:
- Suspended: February 10, 2026 (initially said “operating as scheduled” then reversed course 24 hours later)
- Routes Affected: Montreal-Havana, Toronto-Havana, Montreal-Varadero, Quebec-Varadero
- Capacity: 16,100 two-way seats per week (12.2% of Cuba’s total capacity)
- Statement: “We are organizing a return plan including repatriation flights”
- Refund Policy: Automatic cancellation and full refund for bookings Feb 10 – April 30
- Resort Closures: Several Cuban resorts closed “due to low occupancy rates” — Transat allowing customers to change destination without penalty
- When Will They Return? April 30, 2026 at earliest (but this is NOT guaranteed)
4. Cayman Airways:
- Suspended: Risk of cancellation during Feb 10 – March 31
- Route: Grand Cayman-Havana (once weekly)
- Statement: “Unavailability of fuel presents significant operational constraints”
- Refund Policy: Change fee waiver, or full credit to Travel Bank
- When Will They Return? Depends on March 11 deadline outcome
🟡 OPERATING WITH RESTRICTIONS (Tankering Fuel or Refueling Elsewhere)
US Carriers (Short Florida-Cuba Routes):
5. Southwest Airlines:
- Status: OPERATING (1 daily flight Fort Lauderdale-Havana)
- Strategy: Tankering fuel — aircraft carry enough fuel for BOTH legs (FLL→HAV→FLL) without refueling in Cuba
- Statement: “Due to the current status of aviation fuel in Cuba, Southwest Airlines is requiring aircraft that fly to Havana to carry enough fuel to also fly onto their next destination”
- Why This Works: Fort Lauderdale-Havana = only 228 miles (90-minute flight), so tankering is feasible
- Risk: If any mechanical issue occurs in Havana requiring extra fuel, plane = GROUNDED (no refueling option)
6. American Airlines:
- Status: OPERATING (6 routes from Miami to Cuban cities: Havana, Varadero, Santa Clara, Holguín, Camagüey, Santiago)
- Strategy: Tankering fuel (same as Southwest)
- Statement: “We are closely monitoring the situation” (Miami Herald)
- Why This Works: Miami-Cuba routes all <300 miles (short enough to tanker fuel)
- Risk: Same as Southwest — any mechanical issue = plane stranded
7. Delta Air Lines:
- Status: OPERATING (Miami-Havana)
- Strategy: Tankering fuel
- Statement: “Not aware of any issues being caused by the fuel shortages”
- Why This Works: Miami-Havana = 228 miles
European Long-Haul Carriers:
8. Air Europa:
- Status: OPERATING (Madrid-Havana)
- Strategy: Refueling stop in Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic on return leg (Havana→Santo Domingo→Madrid)
- Added Travel Time: +2 hours (stop adds 1 hour ground time + flight deviation)
- Statement: Introduced “booking flexibility” for customers traveling through Feb 28
- Why This is Necessary: Madrid-Havana = 4,478 miles (8 hours 30 min) — too far to tanker enough fuel for roundtrip
9. Air France:
- Status: LIKELY OPERATING (Paris CDG-Havana)
- Strategy: Likely refueling stop in Cancun or Punta Cana on return leg
- No Official Statement: Airline has NOT publicly confirmed strategy, but aviation experts say long-haul carriers “expected to continue flying but rely on technical refueling stops”
10. Turkish Airlines:
- Status: LIKELY OPERATING (Istanbul-Havana)
- Strategy: Likely refueling stop in Cancun or Punta Cana on return leg
- Istanbul-Havana Distance: 6,200 miles (12 hours) — too far to tanker
11. Iberia:
- Status: OPERATING (Madrid-Havana)
- Strategy: Unknown (likely refueling stop similar to Air Europa)
- Statement: “Booking flexibility” offered for travel through Feb 28
✅ NOT AFFECTED (No Cuba Service)
- United Airlines: Does NOT fly to Cuba
- JetBlue: Does NOT fly to Cuba
- Spirit: Does NOT fly to Cuba (suspended Cuba service years ago)
🌍 IMPACT BY NATIONALITY (TIER 1 TRAVELERS)
🇨🇦 CANADIAN TRAVELERS (MOST AFFECTED)
Pre-Crisis:
- Canadians = #1 Cuba tourists (1 million+ visitors/year, ~40% of all Cuba tourism)
- Snowbirds: Retirees spending 3-6 months in Cuban beach resorts (Varadero, Cayo Coco, Holguin)
- Direct flights: Toronto, Montreal, Calgary → Havana, Varadero, Holguin, Santa Clara
Post-Crisis:
- ALL Canadian airlines suspended (Air Canada, WestJet, Air Transat = 100% of Canada-Cuba capacity)
- 3,000+ repatriated (Air Canada empty ferry flights Feb 10-12)
- Thousands still stranded in Cuban resorts waiting for repatriation flights
- Canadian government warning: “Avoid all non-essential travel to Cuba”
Stranded Canadian Scenarios:
Scenario 1: Air Canada Passengers (Already Repatriated):
- 3,000 travelers who were in Cuba on February 10 were flown home on empty southbound ferry flights (Air Canada sent planes to Cuba with NO passengers, picked up stranded Canadians, flew them back)
- Refunds: Full automatic refunds
Scenario 2: WestJet/Air Transat Passengers (Still Waiting):
- Estimated 5,000-8,000 travelers still in Cuba (based on weekly capacity numbers)
- Repatriation plans: Air Transat organizing “additional repatriation flights” but NO dates announced
- Alternative: Some Canadians booking expensive connecting flights via Mexico (Cancun/Mexico City) or Dominican Republic (Santo Domingo/Punta Cana) to get home
- Cost: $800-1,500 USD vs. original $400-600 direct flights
Scenario 3: Resort Guests (Hotels Closing):
- Several Cuban resorts closed due to “low occupancy rates” (tourists not arriving = resorts empty)
- Air Transat: Allowing affected customers to change destination (fly to Dominican Republic, Mexico, Jamaica instead)
🇺🇸 US TRAVELERS (MODERATE RISK)
Pre-Crisis:
- Cuban-American diaspora: 2+ million (1.5 million in Florida)
- Visits to family: 400,000-500,000/year (mostly via Miami, Fort Lauderdale)
- Restrictions: US law limits Cuba travel to 12 categories (family visits, educational, religious, etc.) — leisure tourism NOT allowed
Post-Crisis:
- Southwest, American, Delta STILL FLYING (tankering fuel from Florida)
- BUT: High risk — any mechanical issue in Havana = plane GROUNDED (no refueling)
- Expert Warning: “If a plane has to divert, or needs extra fuel due to weather, you’re stuck”
US Passenger Scenarios:
Scenario 1: Miami/Fort Lauderdale-Havana (Short Flights):
- Distance: 228 miles (90 minutes)
- Strategy: Airlines tankering enough fuel for BOTH legs
- Risk Level: MODERATE — tankering works for routine ops, but if plane needs extra fuel (weather delay, mechanical, medical emergency requiring extra fuel burn) = NO REFUELING AVAILABLE
Scenario 2: Visiting Family (Cuban-Americans):
- Primary reason: Family visits (allowed under US law)
- Risk: Stranded in Cuba if airline cancels return flight
- Advice: Book refundable tickets, have backup plan (ferry to Mexico?)
Scenario 3: Cruise Ships (Unaffected):
- US-Cuba cruises: Still operating (cruise ships carry own fuel, don’t refuel in Cuba)
🇬🇧 UK TRAVELERS (LOW IMPACT)
Pre-Crisis:
- UK-Cuba direct flights: NONE (all UK travelers connect via Madrid, Paris, Toronto, or Cancun)
- UK tour operators: TUI, Virgin Holidays selling Cuba packages (but using European carriers)
Post-Crisis:
- No UK carriers affected (no direct flights)
- Indirect impact: European carriers (Air Europa, Iberia, Air France) adding refueling stops = longer travel times
🇦🇺 AUSTRALIAN TRAVELERS (VERY LOW IMPACT)
Pre-Crisis:
- Australia-Cuba flights: NONE (all Aussies connect via US or Europe)
- Australian tourists in Cuba: ~5,000-8,000/year
Post-Crisis:
- Zero direct impact (no Australian carriers fly to Cuba)
💥 ROOT CAUSE: TRUMP’S OIL BLOCKADE
The Geopolitical Context
January 3, 2026:
- US military operation removes Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro from power
- Cuba = Maduro’s closest ally (32 Cuban soldiers killed in US operation)
- Venezuela = Cuba’s #1 oil supplier (100,000 barrels/day of crude + refined products)
Late January 2026:
- Trump signs executive order imposing tariffs on ANY country that sells/provides oil to Cuba
- Primary target: Mexico (Cuba’s #2 oil supplier after Venezuela)
- Secondary targets: Russia, China (potential suppliers)
February 2026:
- Venezuela oil shipments to Cuba = ZERO (US blocks all exports)
- Mexico oil shipments to Cuba = UNCERTAIN (President Sheinbaum initially suggested cuts, then on Feb 9 reversed, saying Mexico would “offer more help to Cuba”)
- Result: Cuba’s jet fuel supply COLLAPSES
Trump’s Statement
President Trump (Late January 2026):
“Cuba poses an unusual and extraordinary threat to U.S. national security.”
Executive Order:
- Tariffs on ANY country selling oil to Cuba
- Pressure on Mexico to cut shipments
- Pressure on Latin American countries to isolate Cuba
Mexican Response (CONFLICTING)
January 2026:
- Speculation that Mexico would slash oil shipments under Trump pressure
February 9, 2026:
- President Claudia Sheinbaum: “Mexico will offer MORE help to Cuba”
- Actions: Mexican Navy ships delivered 800+ tons of humanitarian supplies (food, medicine, fuel) to Cuba
- BUT: Jet fuel deliveries remain uncertain
Chinese Response
February 11, 2026:
- China Foreign Ministry: “Beijing stands firmly against the inhumane actions that deprive the Cuban people of their right to subsistence and development”
- Promise: China “will, as always, seek to provide assistance to Cuba”
- ACTION? No concrete fuel deliveries announced yet
Russian Response
February 2026:
- Russia: Called Cuba’s fuel situation “truly critical”
- Criticism: US attempts to pressure Cuba “causing numerous problems”
- ACTION? No fuel deliveries announced (Russia has own war/sanctions problems)
📉 CUBA’S ECONOMIC COLLAPSE (BEYOND AVIATION)
Energy Crisis (Nationwide)
Power Outages:
- 10 hours/day blackouts in Havana, longer in provinces
- Comparison: “As serious as the 1990s Special Period” (Soviet collapse)
Fuel Rationing:
- Gasoline: No longer sold in Cuban pesos (CUP), ONLY dollars (USD)
- Limit: 20 liters per person
- Buses: Havana’s public bus system “effectively ground to a halt”
Tourism Collapse
Pre-Crisis:
- Tourism revenue: $3 billion/year (Cuba’s #1 industry)
- Annual visitors: 3-4 million
Post-Crisis:
- Canadian tourists: Entirely cut off (Canadians = 40% of Cuba tourism)
- Resort closures: Multiple resorts shut down due to “low occupancy”
- Cruise ships: Still operating (self-sufficient on fuel) but beach excursions limited due to bus fuel shortages
Cultural/Social Impact
Events Cancelled:
- Havana International Book Fair (Feb 15-16): Cancelled
- Baseball season: Restructured for “greater efficiency” (fewer games)
- Bank hours: Reduced
- Work week: State companies shifting to 4-day week (Mon-Thu) to save energy
Food/Medicine:
- Shortages comparable to 1990s Special Period
- Inflation rampant
🛫 AIRLINE STRATEGIES: HOW THEY’RE COPING
Strategy 1: Tankering (Southwest, American, Delta)
How It Works:
- Aircraft departs Fort Lauderdale/Miami with DOUBLE fuel load
- Enough fuel for outbound + return leg without refueling in Cuba
- Example: Southwest 737 carries ~20,000 lbs fuel instead of usual ~10,000 lbs
Pros:
- Allows airlines to continue service
- No refueling stop needed
Cons:
- Reduced payload: Extra fuel weight = fewer passengers/cargo
- Higher costs: Carrying extra fuel = less efficient (burning fuel to carry fuel)
- Risk: If plane needs extra fuel (weather, mechanical) = GROUNDED in Havana
Strategy 2: Refueling Stops (Air Europa, Air France, Turkish)
How It Works:
- Outbound: Fly directly to Cuba (using full fuel load)
- Return: Stop in Dominican Republic (Santo Domingo) or Mexico (Cancun) to refuel
Example: Air Europa Madrid-Havana-Santo Domingo-Madrid:
- Madrid → Havana: 4,478 miles (8h 30m)
- Havana → Santo Domingo: 835 miles (2h) — NEW STOP
- Santo Domingo → Madrid: 4,100 miles (8h)
- Total travel time: 18.5 hours (vs. 17 hours direct)
Pros:
- Allows long-haul service to continue
- No payload restrictions
Cons:
- Longer travel times: +1-2 hours
- Passenger inconvenience: Unplanned stop, possible missed connections
- Costs: Airport fees, fuel costs at refueling stop
Strategy 3: Cancellation (Air Canada, WestJet, Air Transat, Cayman Airways)
Why They Cancelled:
- Canadian carriers: Serve multiple Cuban cities (Havana, Varadero, Holguin) — tankering not feasible for all routes
- Safety concerns: “We will not operate flights without guaranteed refueling capability”
- Reputational risk: Don’t want passengers stranded
Repatriation:
- Air Canada: Sent empty planes to Cuba Feb 10-12, brought home 3,000 travelers
- Air Transat: Organizing repatriation flights (dates TBD)
🗓️ WILL MARCH 11 DEADLINE BE MET?
Expert Predictions
Pessimistic View:
- Robert Munks (Verisk Maplecroft): “An accelerating collapse of basic services will put the regime under extreme pressure”
- Prediction: Cuba lacks foreign partners to step in (Venezuela gone, Mexico uncertain, Russia/China talk but no action)
- Outcome: March 11 deadline will be EXTENDED unless geopolitical breakthrough
Neutral View:
- Aviation analysts: “This is unprecedented — we’ve never seen a 30-day fuel blackout at 9 airports”
- Comparison: Last time Cuba had refueling issues (2010s), planes stopped in Nassau, Bahamas
- Outcome: Crisis could drag on MONTHS if US-Cuba tensions persist
Optimistic View (Unlikely):
- Mexican aid: If Mexico delivers significant jet fuel shipments (defying Trump threats), crisis could end March 11
- Chinese aid: If China provides fuel (unlikely — China’s aid = food/medicine, not petroleum)
- Trump U-turn: If Trump lifts tariff threat (extremely unlikely given rhetoric)
✈️ WHAT TRAVELERS SHOULD DO NOW
If You Have Cuba Travel Booked (Feb 20 – March 31):
OPTION 1: Cancel and Rebook Elsewhere
- Best for: Leisure travelers who can go somewhere else
- How: Contact airline for full refund (all carriers offering fee-free cancellations)
- Alternative destinations: Dominican Republic, Jamaica, Mexico (Cancun, Riviera Maya), Puerto Rico
OPTION 2: Wait and See (Risky)
- Best for: Cuban-Americans with family obligations
- Risk: Flights may cancel last-minute, or you could get stranded in Cuba
- Advice: Buy refundable tickets, have backup plan
OPTION 3: Postpone Until April
- Best for: Flexible travelers
- Reasoning: March 11 deadline MAY (emphasis: MAY) resolve crisis
- Risk: Crisis could extend beyond March 11
If You’re CURRENTLY in Cuba:
CANADIAN TRAVELERS:
- Contact Air Canada, WestJet, or Air Transat: Ask about repatriation flights
- Air Canada: Already completed repatriation (Feb 10-12)
- Air Transat: “Organizing return plan including repatriation flights” (NO dates yet)
- Alternative: Book connecting flight via Mexico/Dominican Republic (expensive: $800-1,500)
US TRAVELERS:
- Check Southwest/American/Delta: Flights STILL OPERATING (tankering fuel)
- Risk: If airline cancels return flight = stranded
- Alternative: Charter flight, ferry to Mexico (Cancun, Cozumel), then fly home
EUROPEAN TRAVELERS:
- Check Air Europa/Iberia/Air France: Flights operating with refueling stops
- Longer travel time: +1-2 hours due to stops
If You’re Planning Future Cuba Travel (April+):
RECOMMENDATION: WAIT UNTIL CRISIS RESOLVED
- Don’t book ANY Cuba travel until:
- (1) March 11 deadline passes AND fuel deliveries resume, OR
- (2) Airlines publicly announce “normal operations resumed”
- Watch for: Air Canada, WestJet, Air Transat resumption announcements
🌎 WIDER CARIBBEAN IMPACT
Winners: Dominican Republic, Jamaica, Mexico
Dominican Republic:
- Benefiting: Air Europa refueling stops = airport fees, passenger spending
- Tourism gain: Travelers cancelling Cuba trips rebooking in DR instead
Jamaica:
- Tourism gain: Canadian snowbirds choosing Montego Bay, Negril instead of Cuba
Mexico:
- Tourism gain: Cancun, Riviera Maya seeing increased bookings from cancelled Cuba trips
- Geopolitical: Mexico helping Cuba (800 tons aid) despite Trump pressure
Losers: Cuba, Cuban People
Tourism revenue: $3 billion/year industry COLLAPSING
- Canadians: 40% of tourists = GONE
- Europeans: Deterred by longer travel times (refueling stops)
- Americans: Limited (only short Florida routes)
Economic crisis:
- 10-hour blackouts
- Food/medicine shortages
- Fuel rationing
- Banks closed/reduced hours
- Public buses halted
Social impact:
- Mass emigration (100,000s fled Cuba in 2024-2025)
- Civil unrest possible (expert predictions)
📰 RELATED TRAVEL TOURISTER ARTICLES
Previous Cuba Coverage:
Canada Aviation:
Last Updated: February 20, 2026 at 10:00 AM EST (Day 11 of 30)
Crisis Status: ONGOING
March 11 Deadline: 19 Days Away
Resolution Likelihood: LOW (experts predict extension)
Posted By : Vinay
As a lead contributor for Travel Tourister, Vinay is dedicated to serving our Tier 1 audience (US, UK, Canada, Australia). His mission is to deliver precise, fact-checked news and actionable, data-driven articles that empower readers to make informed decisions, minimize travel risks, and maximize their adventure without compromising safety or budget.
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