Published on : 31 Oct 2026

A Cross-Country Storm Starts November in the Southwest: Four Corners Flood Watches, a Moderate Flash-Flood Risk Nov 1–2, and What It Means for Roads and Flights

TRENDING: A MAJOR STORM THAT FOX WEATHER SAYS COULD AFFECT 35 STATES BEGINS IN THE SOUTHWEST THIS WEEKEND. FLOOD WATCHES COVER PARTS OF ARIZONA, NEW MEXICO, UTAH AND COLORADO, AND THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAS A MODERATE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING IN THE FOUR CORNERS FROM SUNDAY NOV 1 TO MONDAY NOV 2. SOUTHWEST COLORADO IS STILL RECOVERING FROM LAST WEEK’S FLOODING. HERE IS WHAT TO CHECK BEFORE YOU DRIVE OR FLY.

Published: October 31, 2026 | Source: National Weather Service and NOAA Weather Prediction Center

This is a travel-risk guide. Forecasts can change, and rainfall totals are for specific areas, not whole states. This is a different storm from our Oct 28 western US and Alaska winter storm guide.

The Big Picture

Item	Detail
Storm	A strong low near the Pacific Northwest steers Pacific moisture into the Southwest, then the system moves east (Fox Weather)
Reach	Fox Weather’s headline says it could affect 35 states. It does not list them all
Sat Oct 31 (Halloween)	Moderate-to-heavy rain in Southern California, including Los Angeles and San Diego, which could disrupt Halloween plans
Sun Nov 1	A major flood event begins in the Southwest. Fox Weather says a Level 3 of 4 excessive-rainfall risk covers more than 65,000 sq miles, including nearly all of central and northern Arizona
Mon Nov 2	The storm moves into the Plains and Midwest. About 40 million people from Texas to Wisconsin are under a Level 1 of 4 flash-flood threat
Tue Nov 3 (Election Day)	Rain across the central US, with severe thunderstorms possible in parts of the South
Nov 5–6	Heavy rain is possible along the I-95 corridor

Fox Weather notes that models disagree on where the low will form and how strong it will become, so severe-storm locations are uncertain.

The Four Corners: The Main Flood Risk

The Weather Prediction Center has a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall for the Four Corners from about 5am MST Sunday Nov 1 to 5am MST Monday Nov 2 (The Watchers, citing the WPC). “Moderate” means at least a 40% chance of rainfall exceeding flash-flood guidance within 25 miles of a point.

Flood watches (NWS)

Area	Watch
Flagstaff office: Coconino, Navajo and Apache counties, including the Navajo Nation	Early Sunday Nov 1 to Monday Nov 2
Grand Junction office: Four Corners, Upper Dolores, Animas and San Juan basins, southwestern San Juan Mountains, parts of southeastern Utah. A separate watch covers the eastern San Juans and Upper Rio Grande Valley	Sunday into Monday. The San Luis Valley watch may run into late Tuesday night
Albuquerque office: north-central, northwest and west-central New Mexico	Early Sunday to Monday morning
Tucson office: southeastern Arizona	Late Oct 31 to early Nov 2

Rain totals (Nov 1–2)

Area	Forecast
Southeastern Utah and southwestern Colorado	1 to 3 inches. Maxima of 2 to 4 inches are possible around the San Juan Mountains
New Mexico, near and west of the Continental Divide	1 to 2 inches
Arizona, along the Mogollon Rim	1 to 2 inches, with 2 to 3 inches possible at higher elevations
Phoenix to Flagstaff	Up to 5 inches in total through Monday, per Fox Weather
Flagstaff	Already 5.69 inches in October. About 3 more could cause significant flash flooding (Fox Weather)

Hazards: flash flooding in low-lying areas, slot canyons and burn scars; fast rises on rivers and creeks; low-water crossings that become impassable; and clogged drains. Soils are saturated, so the same rain can cause more runoff.

Southwest Colorado Is Still Recovering

Last week’s flooding hit the Four Corners hard:

Evacuations and a local emergency: Pagosa Springs declared a local emergency after flooding last weekend (Fox Weather). CBS News reported evacuations and water rescues across the area as of Oct 25.
Deaths: Fox Weather says last week’s flash flooding killed 2 people in New Mexico. Earlier reports on Oct 25 said officials knew of no deaths, so use Fox Weather’s later figure and attribute it.
River levels: Some rivers that reached their highest levels in 50 to 100 years last week could approach them again (Fox Weather).
Roads: CDOT’s Oct 25 notice listed major closures. As of Oct 31, US 160 over Wolf Creek Pass reopened on Oct 27, but repairs and restrictions remain, and damage on US 550 near Red Mountain Pass and CO 151 is reported (citing CDOT). Earlier CDOT notices also covered a closed US 160 San Juan River bridge near Four Corners (Oct 24 to 25) and a washed-out section of CO 151. Check COtrip.org for the current status.
Cost: some reports CDOT estimated $65 million in damage to federal-aid roads on Oct 28. We could not confirm this figure on CDOT’s pages.

River forecasts (citing NWS)

River	Forecast crest	Flood stage
Animas River near Cedar Hill	About 9.9 ft Monday	10.5 ft
La Plata River below Redmesa	About 8.6 ft Monday	9 ft
San Juan River at Shiprock	About 14 ft early Tuesday	15.5 ft
San Francisco River near Reserve	About 13 ft Monday	15 ft

These are forecast crests below flood stage, so they are close, not over. Forecasts can change.

Snow: Sierra to the Rockies

Cold air trapped at high elevations brings snow from the Sierra to the Rockies (Fox Weather).
The southern Rockies could see 12 to 18 inches at the highest elevations. Fox Weather gives no totals for the Sierra or the San Juans.
Snow levels in the San Juans may stay above about 11,000 ft Sunday, so most of the precipitation falls as rain. Several inches are possible above about 9,000 ft in northern New Mexico .
A winter storm watch for the San Juan Mountains: we could not confirm one in the sources we read. Check the NWS Grand Junction office for current winter alerts before you drive mountain passes.

Flights and Cities

City	What the sources say
Los Angeles and San Diego	Moderate-to-heavy rain on Saturday, possibly disrupting Halloween plans (Fox Weather)
Phoenix	Flood watch for the metro area on Oct 30. Rain continues into the weekend, with a flood risk through Monday
Salt Lake City	Not named in the sources we read. Only southeastern Utah is in the flood area
Las Vegas	Heavy rain caused flash flooding on Oct 30 (Fox Weather)
Gallup, NM	Low cloud and reduced visibility are possible at the first rain band

No verified large-scale airline cancellations had been reported in the sources we read. Check airline waivers and your flight status before you leave.

If You Are Driving: Checklist

✓ Turn around, don’t drown. Never drive through flooded roads or low-water crossings ✓ Avoid slot canyons, washes and burn-scar areas during the watch (Sunday into Monday) ✓ Check road status before you go: COtrip.org (Colorado), AZ511.gov, NMroads.com, udottraffic.utah.gov ✓ Allow extra time on US 160, US 550 and CO 151, where repairs and restrictions remain ✓ Watch for 30 to 40 mph winds on Monday, which can affect tall vehicles ✓ Carry water, food, a charged phone and a full tank. Cell coverage is limited in canyons and mountains ✓ Check your rental-car agreement for flood and unpaved-road clauses ✓ Sign up for local emergency alerts

If You Are Flying: Checklist

✓ Check your airline’s app and any weather waivers before you leave ✓ Allow extra time to reach the airport. Roads can flood quickly ✓ If your Monday or Tuesday trip goes through the Plains or Midwest, check for rain and thunderstorm delays ✓ Keep receipts for meals and hotels

Your Rights (US)

Situation	What generally applies
Cancelled flight	You are entitled to a refund if you decline the rebooked flight (DOT rule)
Weather delay or cancellation	No fixed cash compensation. Meals and hotels depend on the airline’s policy, and are less likely for weather
Rebooking	Ask for the next flight, and for a waiver if one is issued
Insurance	Check travel insurance and card benefits for weather cover. Keep notices and receipts

For More Resources

National Weather Service (weather.gov), including the Flagstaff, Grand Junction, Albuquerque and Tucson offices
NOAA Weather Prediction Center; FAA airport status (fly.faa.gov)
COtrip.org; AZ511.gov; NMroads.com; udottraffic.utah.gov
Your airline’s app and website

Posted By : Vinay

As a lead contributor for Travel Tourister, Vinay is dedicated to serving our Tier 1 audience (US, UK, Canada, Australia). His mission is to deliver precise, fact-checked news and actionable, data-driven articles that empower readers to make informed decisions, minimize travel risks, and maximize their adventure without compromising safety or budget.

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A Cross-Country Storm Starts November in the Southwest: Four Corners Flood Watches, a Moderate Flash-Flood Risk Nov 1–2, and What It Means for Roads and Flights